Outcomes in COVID-19 paxlovid studies
Outcomes in paxlovid studies. Pfizer has denied access to Paxlovid for independent RCTs
Ledford . Pfizer RCTs report very good results, while non-Pfizer RCTs show relatively poor results
Liu , Yu .
Hoertel find that >50% of patients that died had a contraindication for Paxlovid. Retrospective studies that do not exclude contraindicated patients may significantly overestimate efficacy.
Black box warning. The FDA notes that
"severe, life-threatening, and/or fatal adverse reactions due to drug interactions have been reported in patients treated with paxlovid" FDA . Population studies often do not account for the different expected outcomes for the class of patients that seek out and receive early treatment.
0
0.5
1
1.5+
All studies
17%
57
118,172
Improvement, Studies, Patients
Relative Risk
Mortality
31%
27
69,468
Ventilation
-21%
8
13,629
ICU admission
-9%
10
18,015
Hospitalization
42%
16
49,996
Progression
4%
14
41,249
Recovery
1%
8
3,796
Cases
36%
1
1,670
Viral clearance
10%
16
7,919
RCTs
48%
5
5,515
RCT mortality
70%
3
3,637
Peer-reviewed
18%
42
85,199
Prophylaxis
67%
1
1,670
Early
21%
43
78,840
Late
4%
14
38,061
Paxlovid for COVID-19
c19 early .org
March 2024
after exclusions
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Arbel
56%
0.44 [0.08-2.59]
death
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.08]
death
0/654
1/634
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
death
0/1,130
10/1,130
confounding
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
death
7/2,808
100/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
death
population-based cohort
Pandit
1%
0.99 [0.83-1.17]
no recov.
n/a
n/a
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
death
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
death
confounding
Zheng (PSW)
-4%
1.04 [0.56-1.93]
death/hosp.
4,836 (n)
2,847 (n)
OT1
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Shah
51%
0.49 [0.46-0.53]
hosp.
population-based cohort
confounding
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Lewnard
84%
0.16 [0.03-0.81]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
confounding
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Patel (PSM)
20%
0.80 [0.67-0.95]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Park
5%
0.95 [0.57-1.62]
death
940 (n)
1,567 (n)
Wee
14%
0.86 [0.48-1.55]
severe case
population-based cohort
Yang
2%
0.98 [0.95-1.00]
death
220 (n)
1,061 (n)
POSITIVES
Edelstein
-761%
8.61 [1.13-34.2]
rebound
15/72
1/55
Kim
31%
0.69 [0.63-0.75]
death
population-based cohort
Dormuth
29%
0.71 [0.54-0.93]
death/hosp.
85/3,433
120/3,433
confounding
Lin
-633%
7.33 [0.86-62.7]
oxygen
4/30
1/55
Dalton (PSM)
8%
0.92 [0.91-0.93]
PASC
population-based cohort
Fung
7%
0.93 [0.92-0.94]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
1%
0.99 [0.95-1.03]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Choi
37%
0.63 [0.46-0.86]
death
251 (n)
1,592 (n)
Preiss
1%
0.99 [0.96-1.01]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Zhu
-79%
1.79 [1.39-2.33]
viral+
138 (n)
155 (n)
Cheng
22%
0.78 [0.60-1.00]
death
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Wang
13%
0.87 [0.46-1.63]
death
66 (n)
55 (n)
Henderson
84%
0.16 [0.05-0.50]
hosp.
confounding
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 94.1%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
21%
0.79 [0.75-0.83]
218/32,258
624.6/46,582
21% lower risk
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Wan
23%
0.77 [0.66-0.90]
death
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Fu
-280%
3.80 [0.41-35.4]
ventilation
3/49
1/62
OT1
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
509 (n)
Yu (RCT)
-2%
1.02 [0.21-4.93]
severe case
3/103
3/105
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-175%
2.75 [0.89-8.51]
death
11/228
4/228
OT1
Li
18%
0.82 [0.47-1.43]
death
14/73
35/150
Zhou
-39%
1.39 [1.02-1.89]
death
52/132
54/190
Wei
0%
1.00 [0.68-1.46]
death
36/264
63/461
OT1
Guo
-10%
1.10 [1.01-1.20]
viral time
779 (n)
1,199 (n)
Lu
-6%
1.06 [0.77-1.47]
death
17/29
140/253
Liu
-94%
1.94 [1.24-3.03]
progression
27/145
41/427
Tau2 = 0.07, I2 = 83.6%, p = 0.65
Late treatment
4%
0.96 [0.80-1.15]
744/10,862
3,012/27,199
4% lower risk
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
hosp.
0/830
1/840
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51
Prophylaxis
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
0/830
1/840
67% lower risk
All studies
17%
0.83 [0.79-0.87]
962/43,950
3,637.6/74,621
17% lower risk
Paxlovid COVID-19 studies
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 92.6%, p < 0.0001
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Arbel
56%
0.44 [0.08-2.59]
death
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.08]
death
0/654
1/634
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
death
7/2,808
100/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
death
population-based cohort
Pandit
1%
0.99 [0.83-1.17]
no recov.
n/a
n/a
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
death
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Zheng (PSW)
-4%
1.04 [0.56-1.93]
death/hosp.
4,836 (n)
2,847 (n)
OT1
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Patel (PSM)
20%
0.80 [0.67-0.95]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Park
5%
0.95 [0.57-1.62]
death
940 (n)
1,567 (n)
Wee
14%
0.86 [0.48-1.55]
severe case
population-based cohort
Yang
2%
0.98 [0.95-1.00]
death
220 (n)
1,061 (n)
POSITIVES
Edelstein
-761%
8.61 [1.13-34.2]
rebound
15/72
1/55
Kim
31%
0.69 [0.63-0.75]
death
population-based cohort
Lin
-633%
7.33 [0.86-62.7]
oxygen
4/30
1/55
Dalton (PSM)
8%
0.92 [0.91-0.93]
PASC
population-based cohort
Fung
7%
0.93 [0.92-0.94]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
1%
0.99 [0.95-1.03]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Choi
37%
0.63 [0.46-0.86]
death
251 (n)
1,592 (n)
Preiss
1%
0.99 [0.96-1.01]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Zhu
-79%
1.79 [1.39-2.33]
viral+
138 (n)
155 (n)
Cheng
22%
0.78 [0.60-1.00]
death
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Wang
13%
0.87 [0.46-1.63]
death
66 (n)
55 (n)
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 90.5%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
15%
0.85 [0.81-0.89]
133/27,661
494.6/41,791
15% lower risk
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Wan
23%
0.77 [0.66-0.90]
death
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
509 (n)
Yu (RCT)
-2%
1.02 [0.21-4.93]
severe case
3/103
3/105
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-175%
2.75 [0.89-8.51]
death
11/228
4/228
OT1
Wei
0%
1.00 [0.68-1.46]
death
36/264
63/461
OT1
Guo
-10%
1.10 [1.01-1.20]
viral time
779 (n)
1,199 (n)
Lu
-6%
1.06 [0.77-1.47]
death
17/29
140/253
Liu
-94%
1.94 [1.24-3.03]
progression
27/145
41/427
Tau2 = 0.06, I2 = 85.6%, p = 0.41
Late treatment
8%
0.92 [0.76-1.11]
675/10,608
2,922/26,797
8% lower risk
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
hosp.
0/830
1/840
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51
Prophylaxis
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
0/830
1/840
67% lower risk
All studies
13%
0.87 [0.83-0.90]
808/39,099
3,417.6/69,428
13% lower risk
Paxlovid COVID-19 studies after exclusions
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 88.5%, p < 0.0001
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
890 (n)
890 (n)
Arbel
56%
0.44 [0.08-2.59]
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.08]
0/654
1/634
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
0/1,130
10/1,130
confounding
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
7/2,808
100/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
population-based cohort
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
confounding
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
5/132
8/132
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
7/73
17/122
Park
5%
0.95 [0.57-1.62]
940 (n)
1,567 (n)
Yang
2%
0.98 [0.95-1.00]
220 (n)
1,061 (n)
Kim
31%
0.69 [0.63-0.75]
population-based cohort
Choi
37%
0.63 [0.46-0.86]
251 (n)
1,592 (n)
Cheng
22%
0.78 [0.60-1.00]
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Wang
13%
0.87 [0.46-1.63]
66 (n)
55 (n)
Tau2 = 0.12, I2 = 92.4%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
44%
0.56 [0.45-0.69]
39/11,873
196.6/22,710
44% lower risk
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wan
23%
0.77 [0.66-0.90]
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
280 (n)
802 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
280 (n)
509 (n)
Dian (PSM)
-175%
2.75 [0.89-8.51]
11/228
4/228
OT1
Li
18%
0.82 [0.47-1.43]
14/73
35/150
Zhou
-39%
1.39 [1.02-1.89]
52/132
54/190
Wei
0%
1.00 [0.68-1.46]
36/264
63/461
OT1
Lu
-6%
1.06 [0.77-1.47]
17/29
140/253
Tau2 = 0.04, I2 = 69.9%, p = 0.22
Late treatment
11%
0.89 [0.75-1.07]
671/9,703
2,837/25,182
11% lower risk
All studies
31%
0.69 [0.59-0.80]
710/21,576
3,033.6/47,892
31% lower risk
27 paxlovid COVID-19 mortality results
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.08, I2 = 90.7%, p < 0.0001
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Wong (PSM)
3%
0.97 [0.31-3.03]
890 (n)
890 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
38%
0.62 [0.23-1.72]
Bajema (PSM)
48%
0.52 [0.12-2.16]
3/1,587
5.8/1,587
Liu (RCT)
-67%
1.67 [0.62-4.45]
10/132
6/132
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.77
Early treatment
8%
0.92 [0.53-1.58]
13/2,609
11.8/2,609
8% lower risk
Wan
-3%
1.03 [0.70-1.52]
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Fu
-280%
3.80 [0.41-35.4]
3/49
1/62
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-200%
3.00 [0.61-14.7]
6/228
2/228
OT1
Wei
-38%
1.38 [1.02-1.87]
61/264
77/461
OT1
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 13.7%, p = 0.084
Late treatment
-28%
1.28 [0.97-1.70]
70/2,354
80/6,057
28% higher risk
All studies
-21%
1.21 [0.96-1.52]
83/4,963
91.8/8,666
21% higher risk
8 paxlovid COVID-19 mechanical ventilation results
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 4.0%, p = 0.11
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Wong (PSM)
-58%
1.58 [0.95-2.63]
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Bajema (PSM)
56%
0.44 [0.21-0.92]
10/1,587
22.8/1,587
Liu (RCT)
-10%
1.10 [0.56-2.12]
132 (n)
132 (n)
Yan
14%
0.86 [0.52-1.43]
17/73
33/122
Choi
-40%
1.40 [0.16-12.6]
251 (n)
1,592 (n)
Cheng
14%
0.86 [0.56-1.32]
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Tau2 = 0.07, I2 = 42.0%, p = 0.73
Early treatment
6%
0.94 [0.67-1.31]
27/4,126
55.8/5,478
6% lower risk
Wan
-8%
1.08 [0.58-2.02]
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Fu
-659%
7.59 [0.95-61.0]
6/49
1/62
OT1
Dian (PSM)
0%
1.00 [0.06-15.9]
1/228
1/228
OT1
Wei
-122%
2.22 [0.98-5.03]
14/264
11/461
OT1
Tau2 = 0.15, I2 = 32.6%, p = 0.12
Late treatment
-70%
1.70 [0.87-3.32]
21/2,354
13/6,057
70% higher risk
All studies
-9%
1.09 [0.79-1.50]
48/6,480
68.8/11,535
9% higher risk
10 paxlovid COVID-19 ICU results
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.10, I2 = 44.9%, p = 0.61
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
88%
0.12 [0.06-0.26]
hosp.
8/1,039
65/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
4%
0.96 [0.88-1.04]
hosp. time
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
21%
0.79 [0.65-0.95]
hosp.
Arbel
57%
0.43 [0.16-1.17]
hosp.
Pfizer (DB RCT)
52%
0.48 [0.17-1.41]
hosp.
5/654
10/634
Ganatra (PSM)
56%
0.44 [0.21-0.91]
hosp.
10/1,130
23/1,130
confounding
Zhou (PSM)
84%
0.16 [0.11-0.22]
hosp.
34/2,808
752/10,849
Wong (PSM)
24%
0.76 [0.67-0.86]
hosp.
Bajema (PSM)
7%
0.93 [0.74-1.16]
hosp.
180/1,587
194.2/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
40%
0.60 [0.44-0.81]
hosp.
confounding
Shah
51%
0.49 [0.46-0.53]
hosp.
population-based cohort
confounding
Yan
9%
0.91 [0.84-0.99]
hosp. time
73 (n)
122 (n)
Wee
35%
0.65 [0.50-0.85]
hosp.
population-based cohort
Henderson
84%
0.16 [0.05-0.50]
hosp.
confounding
Tau2 = 0.14, I2 = 95.8%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
45%
0.55 [0.43-0.69]
237/8,181
1,044.2/16,258
45% lower risk
Wan
24%
0.76 [0.70-0.82]
hosp.
1,772/6,604
2,541/17,283
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001
Late treatment
24%
0.76 [0.70-0.82]
1,772/6,604
2,541/17,283
24% lower risk
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
hosp.
0/830
1/840
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51
Prophylaxis
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
0/830
1/840
67% lower risk
All studies
42%
0.58 [0.48-0.70]
2,009/15,615
3,586.2/34,381
42% lower risk
16 paxlovid COVID-19 hospitalization results
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.10, I2 = 95.2%, p < 0.0001
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Arbel
56%
0.44 [0.08-2.59]
death
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.08]
death
0/654
1/634
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
death
0/1,130
10/1,130
confounding
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
death
7/2,808
100/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
death
population-based cohort
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
death
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
death
confounding
Zheng (PSW)
-4%
1.04 [0.56-1.93]
death/hosp.
4,836 (n)
2,847 (n)
OT1
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Shah
51%
0.49 [0.46-0.53]
hosp.
population-based cohort
confounding
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Lewnard
84%
0.16 [0.03-0.81]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
confounding
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Patel (PSM)
20%
0.80 [0.67-0.95]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Park
5%
0.95 [0.57-1.62]
death
940 (n)
1,567 (n)
Wee
14%
0.86 [0.48-1.55]
severe case
population-based cohort
Yang
2%
0.98 [0.95-1.00]
death
220 (n)
1,061 (n)
Kim
31%
0.69 [0.63-0.75]
death
population-based cohort
Dormuth
29%
0.71 [0.54-0.93]
death/hosp.
85/3,433
120/3,433
confounding
Lin
-633%
7.33 [0.86-62.7]
oxygen
4/30
1/55
Dalton (PSM)
8%
0.92 [0.91-0.93]
PASC
population-based cohort
Fung
7%
0.93 [0.92-0.94]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
1%
0.99 [0.95-1.03]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Choi
37%
0.63 [0.46-0.86]
death
251 (n)
1,592 (n)
Preiss
1%
0.99 [0.96-1.01]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Cheng
22%
0.78 [0.60-1.00]
death
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Wang
13%
0.87 [0.46-1.63]
death
66 (n)
55 (n)
Henderson
84%
0.16 [0.05-0.50]
hosp.
confounding
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 94.7%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
24%
0.76 [0.71-0.80]
185/31,724
493.6/45,873
24% lower risk
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wan
23%
0.77 [0.66-0.90]
death
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Fu
-280%
3.80 [0.41-35.4]
ventilation
3/49
1/62
OT1
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
509 (n)
Yu (RCT)
-2%
1.02 [0.21-4.93]
severe case
3/103
3/105
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-175%
2.75 [0.89-8.51]
death
11/228
4/228
OT1
Li
18%
0.82 [0.47-1.43]
death
14/73
35/150
Zhou
-39%
1.39 [1.02-1.89]
death
52/132
54/190
Wei
0%
1.00 [0.68-1.46]
death
36/264
63/461
OT1
Lu
-6%
1.06 [0.77-1.47]
death
17/29
140/253
Liu
-94%
1.94 [1.24-3.03]
progression
27/145
41/427
Tau2 = 0.07, I2 = 75.0%, p = 0.86
Late treatment
2%
0.98 [0.80-1.20]
704/10,000
2,882/25,776
2% lower risk
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
hosp.
0/830
1/840
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51
Prophylaxis
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
0/830
1/840
67% lower risk
All studies
22%
0.78 [0.74-0.82]
889/42,554
3,376.6/72,489
22% lower risk
47 paxlovid COVID-19 serious outcomes
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 93.3%, p < 0.0001
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
21%
0.79 [0.69-0.90]
recov. time
686 (n)
674 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Pfizer (DB RCT)
8%
0.92 [0.82-1.03]
recov. time
654 (n)
634 (n)
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Pandit
1%
0.99 [0.83-1.17]
no recov.
n/a
n/a
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Lin
35%
0.65 [0.43-0.98]
recov. time
30 (n)
55 (n)
Tau2 = 0.02, I2 = 73.8%, p = 0.32
Early treatment
8%
0.92 [0.79-1.08]
1,485 (n)
1,410 (n)
8% lower risk
Shao
-28%
1.28 [1.13-1.45]
HRQoL
237 (n)
456 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Yu (RCT)
-6%
1.06 [0.79-1.43]
no disch.
49/103
47/105
OT1
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 25.2%, p = 0.011
Late treatment
-23%
1.23 [1.05-1.43]
49/340
47/561
23% higher risk
All studies
1%
0.99 [0.84-1.16]
49/1,825
47/1,971
1% lower risk
8 paxlovid COVID-19 recovery results
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.04, I2 = 83.8%, p = 0.87
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Pfizer (DB RCT)
36%
0.65 [0.37-1.11]
symp. case
830 (n)
840 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.12
Prophylaxis
36%
0.65 [0.37-1.11]
830 (n)
840 (n)
36% lower risk
All studies
36%
0.65 [0.37-1.11]
830 (n)
840 (n)
36% lower risk
1 paxlovid COVID-19 case result
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.12
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
12%
0.88 [0.83-0.93]
viral load
529 (n)
526 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
28%
0.72 [0.56-0.93]
viral+
890 (n)
890 (n)
Pfizer (DB RCT)
4%
0.96 [0.92-1.00]
viral load
654 (n)
634 (n)
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Zhong
16%
0.84 [0.74-0.96]
viral time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Pandit
3%
0.97 [0.83-1.14]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Liu (RCT)
5%
0.95 [0.85-1.07]
viral time
132 (n)
132 (n)
Yan
62%
0.38 [0.22-0.68]
viral time
73 (n)
122 (n)
Li
58%
0.42 [0.19-0.93]
viral time
9 (n)
11 (n)
POSITIVES
Edelstein
-761%
8.61 [1.13-34.2]
rebound
15/72
1/55
Zhu
-79%
1.79 [1.39-2.33]
viral+
138 (n)
155 (n)
Tau2 = 0.03, I2 = 88.0%, p = 0.0015
Early treatment
16%
0.84 [0.76-0.94]
33/2,812
131/3,013
16% lower risk
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Yu (RCT)
12%
0.88 [0.66-1.18]
viral+
30/103
34/105
OT1
Guo
-10%
1.10 [1.01-1.20]
viral time
779 (n)
1,199 (n)
Tau2 = 0.08, I2 = 84.9%, p = 0.49
Late treatment
12%
0.88 [0.62-1.25]
70/965
164/1,528
12% lower risk
All studies
10%
0.90 [0.83-0.97]
103/3,777
295/4,541
10% lower risk
17 paxlovid COVID-19 viral clearance results
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.02, I2 = 82.7%, p = 0.0083
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.08]
death
0/654
1/634
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Tau2 = 0.82, I2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13
Early treatment
70%
0.30 [0.06-1.46]
5/1,825
21/1,812
70% lower risk
Yu (RCT)
-2%
1.02 [0.21-4.93]
severe case
3/103
3/105
OT1
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.98
Late treatment
-2%
1.02 [0.21-4.93]
3/103
3/105
2% higher risk
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
hosp.
0/830
1/840
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51
Prophylaxis
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
0/830
1/840
67% lower risk
All studies
48%
0.52 [0.23-1.19]
8/2,758
25/2,757
48% lower risk
5 paxlovid COVID-19 Randomized Controlled Trials
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.03, I2 = 2.8%, p = 0.12
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.08]
0/654
1/634
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
5/132
8/132
Tau2 = 0.82, I2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13
Early treatment
70%
0.30 [0.06-1.46]
5/1,825
21/1,812
70% lower risk
All studies
70%
0.30 [0.06-1.46]
5/1,825
21/1,812
70% lower risk
3 paxlovid COVID-19 RCT mortality results
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.82, I2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Arbel
56%
0.44 [0.08-2.59]
death
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
death
0/1,130
10/1,130
confounding
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
death
confounding
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Shah
51%
0.49 [0.46-0.53]
hosp.
population-based cohort
confounding
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Lewnard
84%
0.16 [0.03-0.81]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
confounding
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Park
5%
0.95 [0.57-1.62]
death
940 (n)
1,567 (n)
Wee
14%
0.86 [0.48-1.55]
severe case
population-based cohort
Kim
31%
0.69 [0.63-0.75]
death
population-based cohort
Dormuth
29%
0.71 [0.54-0.93]
death/hosp.
85/3,433
120/3,433
confounding
Lin
-633%
7.33 [0.86-62.7]
oxygen
4/30
1/55
Fung
7%
0.93 [0.92-0.94]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
1%
0.99 [0.95-1.03]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Zhu
-79%
1.79 [1.39-2.33]
viral+
138 (n)
155 (n)
Cheng
22%
0.78 [0.60-1.00]
death
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Wang
13%
0.87 [0.46-1.63]
death
66 (n)
55 (n)
Henderson
84%
0.16 [0.05-0.50]
hosp.
confounding
Tau2 = 0.06, I2 = 94.8%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
28%
0.72 [0.64-0.81]
176/20,809
474/26,839
28% lower risk
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Wan
23%
0.77 [0.66-0.90]
death
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
509 (n)
Yu (RCT)
-2%
1.02 [0.21-4.93]
severe case
3/103
3/105
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-175%
2.75 [0.89-8.51]
death
11/228
4/228
OT1
Li
18%
0.82 [0.47-1.43]
death
14/73
35/150
Zhou
-39%
1.39 [1.02-1.89]
death
52/132
54/190
Wei
0%
1.00 [0.68-1.46]
death
36/264
63/461
OT1
Guo
-10%
1.10 [1.01-1.20]
viral time
779 (n)
1,199 (n)
Lu
-6%
1.06 [0.77-1.47]
death
17/29
140/253
Liu
-94%
1.94 [1.24-3.03]
progression
27/145
41/427
Tau2 = 0.07, I2 = 84.6%, p = 0.59
Late treatment
5%
0.95 [0.80-1.14]
741/10,813
3,011/27,137
5% lower risk
All studies
18%
0.82 [0.74-0.90]
917/31,622
3,485/53,976
18% lower risk
43 paxlovid COVID-19 peer reviewed studies
c19 early .org
March 2024
Tau2 = 0.05, I2 = 93.0%, p < 0.0001
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.89]
death
0/697
9/682
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
88%
0.12 [0.06-0.26]
hosp.
8/1,039
65/1,046
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
89%
0.11 [0.04-0.28]
hosp.
5/697
44/682
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
-11%
1.11 [0.85-1.44]
progression
686 (n)
674 (n)
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
21%
0.79 [0.69-0.90]
recov. time
686 (n)
674 (n)
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
12%
0.88 [0.83-0.93]
viral load
529 (n)
526 (n)
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
5%
0.95 [0.90-1.00]
viral load
529 (n)
526 (n)
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Wong (PSM)
3%
0.97 [0.31-3.03]
ventilation
890 (n)
890 (n)
Wong (PSM)
43%
0.57 [0.45-0.72]
progression
890 (n)
890 (n)
Wong (PSM)
4%
0.96 [0.88-1.04]
hosp. time
890 (n)
890 (n)
Wong (PSM)
28%
0.72 [0.56-0.93]
viral+
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Yip (PSW)
21%
0.79 [0.65-0.95]
hosp.
Arbel
56%
0.44 [0.08-2.59]
death
Arbel
79%
0.21 [0.05-0.82]
death
Arbel
-32%
1.32 [0.16-10.8]
death
Arbel
57%
0.43 [0.16-1.17]
hosp.
Arbel
73%
0.27 [0.15-0.49]
hosp.
Arbel
26%
0.74 [0.35-1.58]
hosp.
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.08]
death
0/654
1/634
Pfizer (DB RCT)
52%
0.48 [0.17-1.41]
hosp.
5/654
10/634
Pfizer (DB RCT)
4%
0.96 [0.91-1.02]
progression
494/654
498/634
Pfizer (DB RCT)
8%
0.92 [0.82-1.03]
recov. time
654 (n)
634 (n)
Pfizer (DB RCT)
4%
0.96 [0.92-1.00]
viral load
654 (n)
634 (n)
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Li (ES)
41%
0.59 [0.50-0.69]
viral time
175 (n)
224 (n)
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
death
0/1,130
10/1,130
confounding
Ganatra (PSM)
39%
0.61 [0.42-0.70]
progression
89/1,130
163/1,130
confounding
Ganatra (PSM)
33%
0.67 [0.52-0.87]
progression
89/1,130
163/1,130
confounding
Ganatra (PSM)
56%
0.44 [0.21-0.91]
hosp.
10/1,130
23/1,130
confounding
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Zhong
16%
0.84 [0.74-0.96]
viral time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Zhong
16%
0.84 [0.76-0.93]
viral time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
death
7/2,808
100/10,849
Zhou (PSM)
75%
0.25 [0.10-0.61]
death
5/2,808
78/10,849
Zhou (PSM)
84%
0.16 [0.11-0.22]
hosp.
34/2,808
752/10,849
Zhou (PSM)
89%
0.11 [0.07-0.17]
hosp.
22/2,808
708/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Wong (PSM)
38%
0.62 [0.23-1.72]
ventilation
Wong (PSM)
-58%
1.58 [0.95-2.63]
ICU
Wong (PSM)
24%
0.76 [0.67-0.86]
hosp.
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
death
population-based cohort
Schwartz (PSW)
43%
0.57 [0.48-0.68]
death/hosp.
population-based cohort
Pandit
1%
0.99 [0.83-1.17]
no recov.
n/a
n/a
Pandit
3%
0.97 [0.83-1.14]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Pandit
-171%
2.71 [0.86-8.55]
misc.
24/127
3/43
Pandit
-52%
1.52 [0.55-4.25]
misc.
18/127
4/43
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
death
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Bajema (PSM)
79%
0.21 [0.08-0.56]
death
5/1,587
23.6/1,587
Bajema (PSM)
48%
0.52 [0.12-2.16]
ventilation
3/1,587
5.8/1,587
Bajema (PSM)
56%
0.44 [0.21-0.92]
ICU
10/1,587
22.8/1,587
Bajema (PSM)
7%
0.93 [0.74-1.16]
hosp.
180/1,587
194.2/1,587
Bajema (PSM)
34%
0.66 [0.45-0.96]
hosp.
43/1,587
65.2/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
death
confounding
Dryden-Peterson
44%
0.56 [0.42-0.75]
death/hosp.
confounding
Dryden-Peterson
40%
0.60 [0.44-0.81]
hosp.
confounding
Zheng (PSW)
-4%
1.04 [0.56-1.93]
death/hosp.
4,836 (n)
2,847 (n)
OT1
Zheng (PSW)
12%
0.88 [0.45-1.71]
death/hosp.
33/4,836
19/2,847
OT1
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Shah
51%
0.49 [0.46-0.53]
hosp.
population-based cohort
confounding
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Liu (RCT)
-67%
1.67 [0.62-4.45]
ventilation
10/132
6/132
Liu (RCT)
-10%
1.10 [0.56-2.12]
ICU
132 (n)
132 (n)
Liu (RCT)
-27%
1.27 [0.67-2.38]
progression
19/132
15/132
Liu (RCT)
5%
0.95 [0.85-1.07]
viral time
132 (n)
132 (n)
Lewnard
84%
0.16 [0.03-0.81]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
confounding
Lewnard
89%
0.11 [0.01-1.25]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
confounding
Lewnard
54%
0.46 [0.23-0.93]
death/hosp.
n/a
n/a
confounding
Lewnard
80%
0.20 [0.06-0.66]
death/hosp.
n/a
n/a
confounding
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Yan
44%
0.56 [0.32-0.96]
progression
73 (n)
122 (n)
Yan
14%
0.86 [0.52-1.43]
ICU
17/73
33/122
Yan
9%
0.91 [0.84-0.99]
hosp. time
73 (n)
122 (n)
Yan
62%
0.38 [0.22-0.68]
viral time
73 (n)
122 (n)
Yan
73%
0.27 [0.19-0.38]
viral+
73 (n)
122 (n)
Patel (PSM)
20%
0.80 [0.67-0.95]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Patel (PSM)
25%
0.75 [0.62-0.90]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Patel (PSM)
29%
0.71 [0.58-0.85]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Patel (PSM)
26%
0.74 [0.60-0.90]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Li
58%
0.42 [0.19-0.93]
viral time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Park
5%
0.95 [0.57-1.62]
death
940 (n)
1,567 (n)
Wee
14%
0.86 [0.48-1.55]
severe case
population-based cohort
Wee
35%
0.65 [0.50-0.85]
hosp.
population-based cohort
Yang
2%
0.98 [0.95-1.00]
death
220 (n)
1,061 (n)
POSITIVES
Edelstein
-761%
8.61 [1.13-34.2]
rebound
15/72
1/55
Kim
31%
0.69 [0.63-0.75]
death
population-based cohort
Kim
43%
0.57 [0.53-0.60]
severe case
population-based cohort
Dormuth
29%
0.71 [0.54-0.93]
death/hosp.
85/3,433
120/3,433
confounding
Dormuth
78%
0.22 [0.05-1.02]
death/hosp.
2/280
9/280
confounding
Dormuth
49%
0.51 [0.31-0.84]
death/hosp.
23/1,314
45/1,314
confounding
Dormuth
36%
0.64 [0.39-1.05]
death/hosp.
25/1,050
39/1,050
confounding
Dormuth
-30%
1.30 [0.79-2.12]
death/hosp.
35/789
27/789
confounding
Dormuth
8%
0.92 [0.78-1.09]
progression
232/3,280
252/3,280
confounding
Dormuth
24%
0.76 [0.45-1.29]
progression
22/264
29/264
confounding
Dormuth
19%
0.81 [0.62-1.05]
progression
93/1,259
115/1,259
confounding
Dormuth
-3%
1.03 [0.74-1.45]
progression
64/1,018
62/1,018
confounding
Dormuth
-15%
1.15 [0.79-1.69]
progression
53/739
46/739
confounding
Lin
-633%
7.33 [0.86-62.7]
oxygen
4/30
1/55
Lin
35%
0.65 [0.43-0.98]
recov. time
30 (n)
55 (n)
Dalton (PSM)
8%
0.92 [0.91-0.93]
PASC
population-based cohort
Dalton (PSM)
-7%
1.07 [1.02-1.12]
PASC
population-based cohort
Fung
7%
0.93 [0.92-0.94]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Fung
13%
0.87 [0.86-0.88]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
1%
0.99 [0.95-1.03]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
5%
0.95 [0.86-1.04]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
-3%
1.03 [0.90-1.17]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
11%
0.89 [0.74-1.06]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
30%
0.70 [0.46-1.04]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
6%
0.94 [0.84-1.04]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
-4%
1.04 [0.89-1.21]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
-3%
1.03 [0.91-1.16]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
-5%
1.05 [0.93-1.19]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
6%
0.94 [0.72-1.21]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
-4%
1.04 [0.87-1.26]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
-60%
1.60 [0.46-5.57]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Ioannou (PSM)
-12%
1.12 [0.86-1.47]
PASC
9,593 (n)
9,593 (n)
LONG COVID
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Choi
37%
0.63 [0.46-0.86]
death
251 (n)
1,592 (n)
Choi
-40%
1.40 [0.16-12.6]
ICU
251 (n)
1,592 (n)
Choi
20%
0.80 [0.31-2.04]
oxygen
251 (n)
1,592 (n)
Preiss
1%
0.99 [0.96-1.01]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Preiss
15%
0.85 [0.79-0.90]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Preiss
7%
0.93 [0.89-0.96]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Preiss
1%
0.99 [0.95-1.02]
PASC
population-based cohort
LONG COVID
Zhu
-79%
1.79 [1.39-2.33]
viral+
138 (n)
155 (n)
Cheng
22%
0.78 [0.60-1.00]
death
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Cheng
-1%
1.01 [0.74-1.37]
oxygen
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Cheng
14%
0.86 [0.56-1.32]
ICU
2,083 (n)
2,045 (n)
Wang
13%
0.87 [0.46-1.63]
death
66 (n)
55 (n)
Wang
-22%
1.22 [0.70-2.14]
progression
66 (n)
55 (n)
Henderson
84%
0.16 [0.05-0.50]
hosp.
confounding
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Wan
24%
0.76 [0.70-0.82]
hosp.
1,772/6,604
2,541/17,283
Wan
18%
0.82 [0.76-0.88]
progression
1,816/6,604
2,541/17,283
Wan
23%
0.77 [0.66-0.90]
death
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Wan
-3%
1.03 [0.70-1.52]
ventilation
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Wan
-8%
1.08 [0.58-2.02]
ICU
1,813 (n)
5,306 (n)
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Shao
-28%
1.28 [1.13-1.45]
HRQoL
237 (n)
456 (n)
Fu
-280%
3.80 [0.41-35.4]
ventilation
3/49
1/62
OT1
Fu
-659%
7.59 [0.95-61.0]
ICU
6/49
1/62
OT1
Fu
-207%
3.07 [1.39-6.81]
progression
17/49
7/62
OT1
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
509 (n)
Shao
-28%
1.28 [1.13-1.45]
misc.
237 (n)
456 (n)
Yu (RCT)
-2%
1.02 [0.21-4.93]
severe case
3/103
3/105
OT1
Yu (RCT)
-6%
1.06 [0.79-1.43]
no disch.
49/103
47/105
OT1
Yu (RCT)
12%
0.88 [0.66-1.18]
viral+
30/103
34/105
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-175%
2.75 [0.89-8.51]
death
11/228
4/228
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-200%
3.00 [0.61-14.7]
ventilation
6/228
2/228
OT1
Dian (PSM)
0%
1.00 [0.06-15.9]
ICU
1/228
1/228
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-94%
1.94 [1.09-3.44]
progression
31/228
16/228
OT1
Dian (PSM)
-80%
1.80 [0.98-3.29]
progression
27/228
15/228
OT1
Li
18%
0.82 [0.47-1.43]
death
14/73
35/150
Zhou
-39%
1.39 [1.02-1.89]
death
52/132
54/190
Zhou
22%
0.78 [0.56-1.09]
death
37/131
69/191
Wei
0%
1.00 [0.68-1.46]
death
36/264
63/461
OT1
Wei
-38%
1.38 [1.02-1.87]
ventilation
61/264
77/461
OT1
Wei
-122%
2.22 [0.98-5.03]
ICU
14/264
11/461
OT1
Wei
-28%
1.28 [0.99-1.67]
progression
72/264
98/461
OT1
Guo
-10%
1.10 [1.01-1.20]
viral time
779 (n)
1,199 (n)
Lu
-6%
1.06 [0.77-1.47]
death
17/29
140/253
Liu
-94%
1.94 [1.24-3.03]
progression
27/145
41/427
Liu
24%
0.76 [0.42-1.37]
progression
12/126
56/446
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.20]
hosp.
0/830
1/840
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.16]
hosp.
0/844
1/840
Pfizer (DB RCT)
25%
0.75 [0.40-1.39]
severe case
17/830
23/840
Pfizer (DB RCT)
22%
0.78 [0.42-1.43]
severe case
18/844
23/840
Pfizer (DB RCT)
15%
0.85 [0.66-1.09]
progression
830 (n)
840 (n)
Pfizer (DB RCT)
3%
0.97 [0.76-1.24]
progression
844 (n)
840 (n)
Pfizer (DB RCT)
36%
0.65 [0.37-1.11]
symp. case
830 (n)
840 (n)
Pfizer (DB RCT)
30%
0.70 [0.42-1.17]
symp. case
844 (n)
840 (n)
Pfizer (DB RCT)
5%
0.95 [0.65-1.41]
symp. case
887 (n)
873 (n)
Pfizer (DB RCT)
27%
0.73 [0.48-1.10]
symp. case
889 (n)
873 (n)
Paxlovid COVID-19 outcomes
c19 early .org
March 2024
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
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Favors control
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